Five Reasons To Be Optimistic About The Farm Corn Combine Harvester Market In 2020

Compared with other industries, this year's performance of the agricultural machinery industry under the influence of the epidemic situation has indeed made people in the industry very pleased. In the first half of the year, not only the scale of the agricultural machinery industry achieved year-on-year growth, but also the profits of enterprises above designated size reached a nearly 40% increase , The most commendable is that large and medium tractors, wheeled harvesters, rice transplanters, plant protection drones, soil preparation machinery, balers and other farm corn combine harvester products have achieved market sales growth.

Right now, with the arrival of the "Three Autumns", the agricultural machinery market has been fully launched in the second half of the year. Among many products, corn harvesters have attracted much attention. What is the farm corn combine harvester market trend throughout the year, whether it is rising or falling? The author prefers the former, and the forecast and judgment are based on the following five points.

The first point is that the price of corn continues to be strong, which has significantly stimulated the harvester market.

Since the beginning of this year, the international price of corn and other staple foods has been strong. According to statistics, from April 28 to July 8, the closing price of CBOT (Chicago Futures Exchange) corn showed an upward trend, rising by 16.5%.)

The performance of domestic food prices also continued to improve. Statistics show that the CPI for food in June rose to 1.57% year-on-year, which was a record high since November 2017. The price of corn continued to rise. After the Spring Festival, as domestic epidemic prevention and control improved, corn Downstream demand continues to pick up, coupled with the market’s expectation that my country’s corn supply will change from loose to tight this year.

Corn price trends have a profound impact on users’ enthusiasm for corn planting and investment in agricultural machinery. For several years, corn prices have fluctuated up and down. Not only the income of growers has not been guaranteed, but the income of agricultural machinery has also failed to meet expectations, and the social stock echelon has been updated. The farm corn combine harvester market has entered a period of consolidation and slow development. Sales declined for three consecutive years from 2015 to 2017, and restored growth in 2018 and 2019. It only reached the 2012 market sales level. The main market demand gradually entered the market inventory update level.

Since the beginning of this year, domestic and foreign corn prices have been rising all the way, and the stimulus effect on the farm corn combine harvester market will be extremely obvious, achieving three consecutive years of sales increase or a high probability.

The second point is that corn mechanization is still in demand, and product updates and upgrades have entered a concentrated period.

As China’s largest food crop, corn is the crop with the largest planting area and the highest total yield. It has an important strategic position in ensuring China’s food security. Among the three major food crops in China, the chance of corn yield has always been low. The hills and mountains are still plain planting areas, and many areas still have manual harvesting. According to the latest statistics, the domestic corn harvest rate in 2019 is around 80%, and the non-mechanical harvest area is roughly estimated to exceed 120 million mu. The corn harvesting machinery is rigid. There is more room for demand.

Recalling the development history of the domestic farm corn combine harvester market since 2004, it can be divided into the following three stages:

The first stage, 2004-2011, is the product and market cultivation stage. Driven by the national subsidy policy, domestic agricultural machinery R&D and manufacturing companies have successively entered the field of farm corn combine harvester. However, due to the relatively weak technical foundation, the overall performance of the product has disadvantages such as single function and insufficient reliability. At this stage, the corn shoulder machine and the wheat corn header are mutually exclusive. Multiple models such as replacements and self-propelled machines exist at the same time, and the market has risen. The annual sales volume has risen from more than 300 units in 2004 to 15,000 units in 2011.

The second stage, 2012-2014, the market burst stage. With the completion of product and market accumulation, in 2012, driven by subsidy policies, rigid demand, two-line and three-line minicomputer product maturity and other favorable factors, the corn machine market sales that year achieved an explosive growth of over 200% , Officially opened the door to the mature upgrade of the performance and quality of the corn machine. The market sales have increased year after year. In 2014, the market sales were close to 80,000 units, reaching the peak of annual sales in the past 10 years.

The third stage, from 2015 to present, is the stage of slowing down and normalization. Since 2015, the domestic farm corn combine harvester market has entered a three-year continuous decline. The continuous decline once made it difficult for manufacturing companies in the industry. In 2017, the overall market sales fell to the bottom of the market in nearly 7 years. The market in 2018 and 2019 Picking up, but the increase is limited.

According to the service life of agricultural machinery products, the renewal cycle of farm corn combine harvester is generally about 5 years. From the development history of the domestic corn harvester market, 2014, 2015, and 2016 are at the peak of sales for three consecutive years, with more than 200,000 people entering the market Taiwan corn harvesters are gradually entering the phase of elimination and renewal, and inventory renewal is becoming the main force for market growth. Judging by the current market situation, the sales situation in the Northeast, Northwest, Central Plains and hilly and mountainous areas is promising. This year the corn harvester market will maintain a steady growth and it is almost a foregone conclusion. It is expected that the overall sales growth in 2020 may exceed double digits, at 5.5-6 Around ten thousand units.

The third point is the increase in demand for feed for the recovery of animal husbandry, which has clearly driven the corn machinery market.

From the perspective of the proportion of corn consumption structure, feed consumption accounted for 65.6% of the absolute proportion, industrial consumption accounted for 30.9%, and food consumption accounted for only 3.6%. It is enough to see the development trend of animal husbandry and corn industrialization. It directly determines the trend of corn consumption.

Therefore, the above two major corn application industries are developing rapidly, and the corn industry is good, which has a significant positive driving effect on the corn harvester market.

The fourth point is that the maturity of corn machinery products has increased, and the regional market sales have increased significantly.

After years of development, the overall maturity of my country's farm corn combine harvester products has been greatly improved, the localization of short-board products has gradually achieved breakthroughs, and the contradiction between supply and demand has continued to ease, especially for medium-sized and small-sized products. Operational reliability and adaptability have substantially increased. , Domestic manufacturing covers all product types that cover corn harvest. In recent years, it has made continuous breakthroughs in large-scale, grain models, and stalk harvesting models, and is effectively meeting users' diverse product needs.